Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Optimization of Climate Resilient Wheat Practices by Using DSSAT Model in Sindh, Pakistan

Authors

  • Hamza Sarwar US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan. Author
  • Muhammad Ali US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan. Author
  • Muhammad Arfan US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan. Author
  • Fahad Rasul University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author

Keywords:

Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT), Climate Change Adaptations, Climate Change Resilience, Wheat Crop Modeling, Food Security, Sindh, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change has significant impacts on wheat crop in Pakistan. This study evaluates the climate change impacts on the wheat crop with a model 'Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer' (DSSAT). The model was calibrated and validated with the data of plots sown on three planting dates (15th November, 25th November, and 05th December). Base line climatic data of 30 years from 1988-2018 was used to simulate ten future climatic scenarios (Current, 0.5°C rise in Temperature, 1°C rise in Temperature, 1.5°C rise in Temperature, 0.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% decrease in Rainfall, 1°C rise in Temperature & 15% decrease in Rainfall, 1.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% decrease in Rainfall, 0.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% increase in Rainfall, 1°C rise in Temperature & 15% increase in Rainfall and 1.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% increase in Rainfall) under the guidelines of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Climate, Soil and crop management data were used as an input. Among the plots sown on different planting dates, the best yield (3,458 kg/ha) was obtained from planting date of 25th November, whereas 3,179 and 3,161 kg/ha yield obtained for 15th November and 05th December, respectively. The results showed that climate change will cause negative impacts ranging from 0.7 % to 9.5 % reduction in wheat yield. The results also revealed that the increase in temperature decreases the wheat yield. The simulations showed that the different adaptations like optimized NPK amount, application of farm yard manure, and drip irrigation showed up to 11.4 % increase in wheat yield.

References

Aatif M, Khan H, Anjum MM, Ali N, Hamid H. (2017). Effect of farm yard manure and phosphorus levels on yield and yield components of wheat. International Journal of Environment Science Natural Resource Management 2(4), pp.1-5. DOI: 10.19080/IJESNR.2017.02.555595.

Abedi, T., Alemzadeh, A. and Kazemeini, S.A., (2010). Effect of organic and inorganic fertilizers on grain yield and protein banding pattern of wheat. Australian journal of crop science, 4(6), p.384.

Agricultural Census Organization, Statistics Division, Government of Pakistan. 2012. Agricultural Census (2010). [Online] Available from: http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/aco/publications/agricultural_census2010/WRITE-UP%20AGRI.%20CENSUS%202010.pdf [Accessed 15th June 2019].

Ahmed B.O, Inoue M, Moritani S. (2010). Effect of saline water irrigation and manure application on the available water content, soil salinity, and growth of wheat. Agricultural Water Management, 97(1), pp.165-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2009.09.001.

Ali Q, Ahsan M, Tahir M.H.N, Elahi M, Farooq J, Waseem M, Sadique M. (2011). Genetic variability for grain yield and quality traits in chickpea. IJAYMS, 5, pp.201-208.

Asseng S, Martre P, Maiorano A, Rötter R. P, O'Leary G. J, Fitzgerald G. J, Reynolds M. P. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global change biology, 25(1), 155-173.

Bhatti F. (2018). Agricultural Water-use Optimization using a Cropping Systems Simulation model (CropSyst) for Chickpea. US-Pakistan Centers for Advanced Studies in Water.

Challinor A. J, Watson J, Lobell D. B, Howden S. M, Smith D. R, Chhetri, N. (2014). A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4(4), pp. 287-291.

Chaudhry Q.U.Z. (2017). Climate change profile of Pakistan. Asian Development Bank. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS178761.

Chen S, Chen X, Xu J. (2016). Impacts of climate change on agriculture: Evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 76, pp.105-124.

Choudhury, A.K., Ishtiaque, S., Sen, R., Jahan, M., Akhter, S. and Ahmed, F., (2018). Calibration and Validation of DSSAT Model for Simulating Wheat Yield in Bangladesh. Haya: The Saudi Journal of Life Sciences (SJLS), 3(4), pp.356-64.

Djanaguiraman M, Boyle D.L, Welti R, Jagadish S.V.K, Prasad P.V.V. (2018). Decreased photosynthetic rate under high temperature in wheat is due to lipid desaturation, oxidation, acylation, and damage of organelles. BMC plant biology, 18(1), pp.55. doi: 10.1186/s12870-018-1263-z.

Eckstein D, Künzel V, Schäfer L. 2017. Global climate risk index (2018). Germanwatch, Bonn. [Online] Available from: https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/Global%20Climate%20Risk%20Index%202019_2.pdf [Accessed 13th October 2019].

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). (2009). Global agriculture towards 2050. In High Level Expert Forum-How Feed World (Vol. 2050, pp. 1-4). [Online] Available from: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf [Accessed 25th August 2019].

FAO. 2014 Crop Prospects and Food Situation No. 4, December (2014). [Online] Available from: http://www.fao.org/3/a-I4256E.pdf. [Accessed 20th November 2019].

Griffin T.S, Honeycutt C.W, He Z. (2003). Changes in soil phosphorus from manure application. Soil Science Society of America Journal, 67(2), pp.645-653. doi:10.2136/sssaj2003.6450.

He Z, Xia X, Peng S, Lumpkin T.A. (2014). Meeting demands for increased cereal production in China. Journal of Cereal Science, 59(3), pp.235-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcs.2013.07.012.

Howden S.M, Soussana J.F, Tubiello F.N, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H. (2007). Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 104(50), 19691-19696.

Hunt L.A, Boote K.J. (1998). Data for model operation, calibration, and evaluation. In Understanding options for agricultural production pp. 9-39. Springer, Dordrecht.

Iglesias A, Garrote L, Quiroga S, Moneo M. (2012). A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe. Climatic change, 112(1), pp.29-46.

Jan A, Amanullah, Noor M. (2011). Wheat response to farm yard manure and nitrogen fertilization under moisture stress conditions. Journal of plant nutrition, 34(5), pp.732-742. https://doi.org/10.1080/01904167.2011.540688.

Janjua P.Z, Samad G, Khan N.U, Nasir M. (2010). Impact of climate change on wheat production: a case study of Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, pp.799-822.

Jones, J.W., G. Hoogenboom, C.H. Porter, K.J. Boote, W.D. Batchelor, L.A. Hunt, et al. 2003. The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy 18:235-265.

Kazi K.A, Bari I, Ayaz M, Noureen K. (2016). Crop Development in Lower Sindh Tandojam (2015-16). [Online] Available from: http://namc.pmd.gov.pk/assets/crop-reports/1035232067Crop-Development-in-Lower-Sindh-2015-16.pdf [Accessed 27th March 2019].

Khan, M. S., Rahpoto, M. S., & Mangnejo, G. M. (2020). The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Corporal Well-Being: Apparent Impact Matters: Assessment of Contagion to Developing Economies. Research Journal of Social Sciences and Economics Review, 1(3), 232-238.

Khan, M. S., Rahpoto, M. S., & Talpur, U. (2021). The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Corporal Wellbeing: Apparent Impact Matters. In Internet of Everything and Big Data (pp. 25-34). CRC Press.

Khoso, A. A. K., Pathan, M. S. K., & Ahmed, M. (2022). Exploring The Impacts and Aftershocks of Covid-19 on Islamic Banking and Conventional Banking in Pakistan. International Research Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(1), 179-192.

Khowaja, I. A., Talpur, U., Soomro, S. H., & Khan, M. S. (2021). The non-banking financial institutions in perspective of economic growth of Pakistan. Applied Economics Letters, 28(8), 701-706.

Kingra P.K, Singh S.P. (2016). Climate Change and Crop Water Productivity–A review. Indian Journal of Economies and Development, 12(4), pp. 603-614.

Kreft S, Eckstein D, Dorsch L, Fischer L. (2015). Global climate risk index 2016: who suffers most from extreme weather events? weather-related loss events in 2014 and 1995 to 2014. Germanwatch Nord-Süd Initiative eV.

Kurukulasuriya P, Mendelsohn R.O. (2007). Endogenous irrigation: The impact of climate change on farmers in Africa. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, pp. 4278.

Liu B, Asseng S, Müller C, Ewert F, Elliott J, Lobell D. B, Rosenzweig C. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change, 6(12), 1130-1136.

Lopez C.G, Banowetz G.M, Peterson C.J, Kronstad W.E. (2003). Dehydrin expression and drought tolerance in seven wheat cultivars. Crop Science, 43(2), pp.577-582. DOI: 10.2135/cropsci2003.0577.

Mahato A. (2014). Climate change and its impact on agriculture. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 4(4), pp.1-6.

Mahmood R, Jia S, Zhu W. (2019). Analysis of climate variability, trends, and prediction in the most active parts of the Lake Chad basin, Africa. Scientific reports, 9(1), pp. 1-18.

Mahmood, N. and Ahmad, R.N. (2005). Determination of water requirements and response of wheat to irrigation at different soil moisture depletion levels. Int. J. Agric. Biol, 7(5), pp.812-815.

Maldonado-Ibarra, I., Rodriguez, G.R. and Castillo-Rosales, D. (2015). Determination of genetic coefficients of three spring wheat varieties under a Mediterranean environment applying the DSSAT model. Chilean journal of agricultural research, 75(4), pp.418-424.

Muhammad, S. K. P. (2023). THE INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE ON EMPLOYEE COMMITMENT AND TURNOVER INTENTIONS: A STUDY OF THE IMPORTANCE OF POSITIVE CULTURE FOR RETAINING EMPLOYEES. Global Research Journal of Management and Social Sciences (GRJMSS), 1(1), 85-94.

National Drought Monitoring Center, Pakistan Meteorological Department (2016) Climate of Pakistan (2016). [Online] Available from: http://www.ndmc.pmd.gov.pk/report2016.pdf [Accessed 25th May 2019].

Ortiz R, Sayre K.D, Govaerts B, Gupta R, Subbarao GV, Ban T, Hodson D, Dixon J.M, Ortiz-Monasterio J.I, Reynolds M. (2008). Climate change: can wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 126(1-2), pp.46-58.

Park Y.W. (2013). The Environment and Climate Change Outlook of Pakistan. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), pp.107.

Pathan, M. S. K. (2022). The Impact of Emotional Intelligence on Leadership Effectiveness. International Research Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(3), 1-7.

Pathan, M. S. K. (2022). The Influence of Organizational Cultu*re on Employee Commitment and Turnover Intentions. International Research Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(4), 34-43.

Pathan, M. S. K. (2023). Assessing the mediating role of job satisfaction in the relationship between organizational culture and employee commitment. International Research Journal of Education and Innovation, 4(1), 1-11.

Pathan, M. S. K., Khoso, A. A., & Ahmed, M. (2022). Digital Model Anecdotes Through Artificial Intelligence in Socioeconomic and Islamic Investments. International Research Journal of Education and Innovation, 3(2), 195-209.

Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P. (2010). The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467(7311), pp.43.

Porter J. R, Xie L, Challinor A. J, Cochrane K, Howden S. M, Iqbal M.M, Travasso M. I. (2014). Food security and food production systems.

Qu CH, Li X.X, Hui J.U. Qin L.I.U. (2019). The impacts of climate change on wheat yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China using DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model under different climate scenarios. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 18(6), pp.1379-1391. doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(19)62585-2.

Rahat, S., & Pathan, M. S. K. (2021). Sustainable Climate Approach and in Context of Environment Economy: A Classical Analyze Matters. Neutron, 21(1), 40-45.

Rahman M. H, Ahmad A, Wang X, Wajid A, Nasim W, Hussain M, Awais M. (2018). Multi-model projections of future climate and climate change impacts uncertainty assessment for cotton production in Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 253, pp. 94-113.

Ritchie J.T. (1998). Soil water balance and plant water stress. In Understanding options for agricultural production, pp. 41-54. Springer, Dordrecht.

Shiferaw, B., Smale, M., Braun, H.J., Duveiller, E., Reynolds, M. and Muricho, G., 2013. Crops that feed the world 10. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by wheat in global food security. Food Security, 5(3), pp.291-317.

Stern N, Stern N.H. (2007). The economics of climate change: The Stern review. cambridge University press.

Stocker T.F, Qin D, Plattner G.K, Tignor M.M, Allen S.K, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley P.M. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group 1 Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers, IPCC.

Downloads

Published

2024-03-31

How to Cite

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Optimization of Climate Resilient Wheat Practices by Using DSSAT Model in Sindh, Pakistan. (2024). International Research Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 5(1), 310-323. https://irjmss.com/index.php/irjmss/article/view/246

Similar Articles

1-10 of 205

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.