Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Optimization of Climate Resilient Wheat Practices by Using DSSAT Model in Sindh, Pakistan
Keywords:
Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT), Climate Change Adaptations, Climate Change Resilience, Wheat Crop Modeling, Food Security, Sindh, PakistanAbstract
Climate change has significant impacts on wheat crop in Pakistan. This study evaluates the climate change impacts on the wheat crop with a model 'Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer' (DSSAT). The model was calibrated and validated with the data of plots sown on three planting dates (15th November, 25th November, and 05th December). Base line climatic data of 30 years from 1988-2018 was used to simulate ten future climatic scenarios (Current, 0.5°C rise in Temperature, 1°C rise in Temperature, 1.5°C rise in Temperature, 0.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% decrease in Rainfall, 1°C rise in Temperature & 15% decrease in Rainfall, 1.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% decrease in Rainfall, 0.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% increase in Rainfall, 1°C rise in Temperature & 15% increase in Rainfall and 1.5°C rise in Temperature & 15% increase in Rainfall) under the guidelines of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Climate, Soil and crop management data were used as an input. Among the plots sown on different planting dates, the best yield (3,458 kg/ha) was obtained from planting date of 25th November, whereas 3,179 and 3,161 kg/ha yield obtained for 15th November and 05th December, respectively. The results showed that climate change will cause negative impacts ranging from 0.7 % to 9.5 % reduction in wheat yield. The results also revealed that the increase in temperature decreases the wheat yield. The simulations showed that the different adaptations like optimized NPK amount, application of farm yard manure, and drip irrigation showed up to 11.4 % increase in wheat yield.
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